Ukraine Crisis: A Russo-Chinese Alliance and implications for Taiwan
Posted on : August 3, 2022Author : AGA Admin
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began most countries have been looking at the reaction of one major power. This is the People’s Republic of China. There have been talks about the emergence of a new Russia-China international axis and whether the People’s Republic was initially aware of the date and the timing of the invasion. This rumor has been given wings by the fact that the invasion happened soon after the conclusion of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. But how much truth is there to all this speculation. Is an alliance between Russia and China really developing against the Western world? And what implications does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have for China’s attempt to annex Taiwan? The most important point to consider here is whether the two situations are analogous and can be compared. Also, it can be debated whether the People’s Republic of China needs a country like Russia to achieve its long-term objectives.
Russia has been a power with declining global influence since the end of the Cold War. This is the case both in the economic and the political spheres. Today Russia has political allies in only a few places in the world and its economy is nowhere near the top leagues. This has been mostly the case since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Vladimir Putin has tried to revive pride in Russian nationalism, but even he has failed to revive the glory and prestige that the Soviet Union had in the past. Today Russia has one ally in Europe, Belarus, one ally in West Asia, Syria and one ally in Latin America, Venezuela. All of these countries are themselves facing either severe political or economic crises which have made them look to Russia for help. This is hardly the picture of a country which can count itself among the great powers of the world. So, in this situation Russia and China are highly unlikely allies. Russia needs China more than the other way round.
China also does not have many international allies like Russia, but it has far more influence both economically and politically. A new “Cold War” has developed between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. This new Cold War has both geo-strategic and financial aspects. Both the United States and China are competing for influence in other countries along with their allies. The stakes are extremely high in this new Cold War. In spite of all this China is still not a revisionist power. It is completely in-twined with the international system in all its aspects. Unlike the previous Cold War between the United States and the USSR this is not an ideological competition. Even though China is still ruled by the Communist Party, Marxism-Leninism is no longer the main part of the party’s ideology. It does not seek to export its version of communism to the outside world anymore. But it is seeking to make China a global power at par with the United States through all means possible.
So as can be clearly seen Russia and China are very unusual allies to begin with. The only thing they have in common is their common enmity towards the United States. The People’s Republic of China is a status quo power, in spite of all the rivalry that it has with the West. The Chinese have too much invested in the international system both politically and financially to have any intention to wreck it. They do have some issues with the current global order and are seeking to change it for their own benefit. But these do not in any way change their overall objective of maintaining global stability. Russia on the other hand is a anti-status quo power. It does not have the economic heft or influence of the Chinese to begin with. The only major resource that it has which can influence the global economy is gas. It cannot challenge the United States directly through financial or even military means. So, it uses proxy campaigns like cyber warfare and misinformation propaganda to undermine US influence around the world.
Therefore, it can be said that the two countries are not comparable in any respects other than being autocratic dictatorships. This is more an alliance based on convenience than a relationship based on any common ideological interests. Because Russia has such low stakes in the international system, it has less to lose by undermining it. This poses a dilemma for the Chinese. This is because while they support any Russian action which undermines the West, they are wary of any such Russian action destabilizing the global geo-strategic order.
This is where the invasion of Ukraine by the Russians poses a challenge as well a s learning experience for the Chinese in more ways than once. The war in Ukraine has gone on for six months, yet the initial Russian optimistic predictions that they would win the war in a few days and occupy the whole of Ukraine have not been fulfilled. In the meantime, the Russian economy is facing serious economic setbacks under Western sanctions. The West under the banner of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has stood united in supporting Ukraine, both militarily and economically, against Russian aggression. The Ukrainian people have themselves put up a strong resistance to the Russian invasion.
All this has given the Chinese some pause for thought. They have come to realize that any invasion of Taiwan will not be as easy as they once thought it would be. For Xi Jinping the current leader of China the dream of reunification of the homeland has not been abandoned, it has only been modified. The Chinese have reached the conclusion that they need to carry out a quick, lightning attack on Taiwan so that they can achieve a swift victory before the rest of the world can react. But they have also come to understand that in the meantime they need to build up their economy to such an extent that they do not suffer the severe negative economic repercussions which the Russians are suffering now due to Western sanctions.
So as can be seen the Russo-Ukrainian war does not yet mean that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent. But it does mean that when it happens one day the Chinese will be fully prepared to meet any economic or political challenges such an invasion might create for them. Taiwan has much greater security guarantees from the United States and the West in general than Ukraine has ever had. Ukraine was once part of the former Soviet Union ruled from Moscow, Taiwan on the other hand was never a part of the People’s Republic of China. There is speculation that the Quad regional grouping in China’s neighbourhood consisting of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States might one day turn into a regional equivalent of NATO in South and Southeast Asia. That remains to be seen. But in the meantime, the Chinese threat to Taiwan and its other neighbours remain and all that will be required to spark of a conflict will be a single major conflagration.
Dr Anirban Sen
Adjunct Researcher, Asia in Global Affairs
